Why Silver Is Still Far From the End of Its Bull Cycle

Silver has just crossed the $100 per ounce mark. Gold is approaching $5,000. And if you follow the reaction of traditional financial experts to this move, you would think we are witnessing a speculative blowoff top.

They are wrong. And here’s why.

In his latest video, precious metals analyst Alan Hibbard points out a critical distinction that most investors overlook — and it explains why $100 silver is not the end of this bull market, but only the beginning.

A Tweet That Perfectly Captures Wall Street’s Confusion

A recent post from a CFA summed up the prevailing sentiment:

“Silver is in the middle of a blowoff top. The people who didn’t buy at $20 are now buying at $93 expecting silver to hit $500 by the end of 2026. Investor psychology is insane.”

That conclusion makes sense from a traditional finance perspective. But it also reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of how monetary metals operate.

Traditional investors evaluate everything through the lens of stocks: productivity, earnings growth, market capitalization. But gold and silver do not follow those rules. They operate under a completely different logic — the logic of trust, not productivity.

Businesses Grow at the Speed of Organization. Metals Reprice at the Speed of Trust.

Alan illustrates this with a simple comparison: look at the charts of most large corporations — Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, Johnson & Johnson, Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway — and you’ll see the same pattern:

Big gains early. Smaller gains over time.

That makes sense. When a company is small, tripling in size is possible. But once it becomes a multi-billion-dollar enterprise, 300% growth in a single year is nearly impossible. Businesses are constrained by labor, capital, time, and coordination.

Precious metals are the opposite.

In a bull cycle, the largest moves often occur toward the end. Look at the gold and silver bull market of the 1970s: returns accelerated as the cycle matured. And today, we’re seeing a similar pattern:

• Gold up 64% in 2025

• Silver up 146% in 2025

• The second half of 2025 stronger than the first

That’s acceleration, not exhaustion.

Three Core Differences Between Businesses and Monetary Metals

Alan breaks it down into three factors:

1. Valuation

Businesses rise in value through productivity and fall through inefficiency.

Monetary metals rise when trust erodes and fall when trust returns.

👉 They measure two entirely different forces.

2. Constraints

Businesses are limited by the physical world: labor, capital, logistics.

Metals are limited by human perception: fear, belief, credibility.

👉 That’s why metals can be repriced far more violently.

3. Speed

Businesses accumulate value at the speed of human organization — slow, structured, incremental.

Metals accumulate value at the speed of collective perception — the speed of thought. When trust collapses, repricing happens fast.

Alan puts it this way:

“If I don’t believe the U.S. dollar has value, and you offer me an ounce of silver or $100, I’ll take the silver. If you offer me $200, I’ll still take the silver. If you offer $300, I’ll still take the silver — because 300 lies are not better than 200 lies.”

What Does History Say About $500 Silver?

So is $500 silver by the end of 2026 really absurd?

Alan bases his calculation on the only reliable data we have: the 1979 bull market.

• On January 22, 1979, silver traded at $6 per ounce

• By year-end, it reached $32.20 per ounce — a 409% increase

If 2026 were to repeat that same percentage move from yesterday’s close of $96.83, silver would end the year at:

👉 $492 per ounce

Not $500.

$492 — a “more reasonable” number.

History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it often rhymes. And right now, we are hearing echoes of the late 1970s — not a speculative bubble peak, but a collapse of trust accelerating in real time.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did silver suddenly reach $100 per ounce?

Because silver is being repriced at the speed of trust, not productivity. Unlike stocks that rise with earnings growth, monetary metals like silver are repriced when confidence in currencies and institutions weakens.

Is $100 silver a bubble or blowoff top?

No. Precious metals bull markets behave opposite to equities. Businesses deliver their biggest gains early in a cycle, while gold and silver tend to see their most explosive moves late in the cycle. The 1970s demonstrated this pattern — and today appears similar.

How high could silver go in 2026?

If 2026 repeats the 409% gain of 1979, silver could reach $492 per ounce by year-end. This is not speculation, but a historical extrapolation.

What is the difference between investing in stocks and silver?

Stocks accumulate value at the speed of human organization (slow and constrained).

Silver accumulates value at the speed of collective perception, and can reprice rapidly when trust collapses.

👉 Stocks are valued by productivity; precious metals are valued by the erosion of trust.

Is it too late to buy silver at $100?

According to historical models, no. In the 1970s bull market, silver’s strongest gains occurred after it had already risen significantly. The final year of that cycle saw a 409% increase.