{"id":1655,"date":"2026-01-28T14:47:12","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T07:47:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/vi-sao-bac-van-con-rat-xa-moi-ket-thuc-chu-ky-tang\/"},"modified":"2026-03-03T15:34:05","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T08:34:05","slug":"vi-sao-bac-van-con-rat-xa-moi-ket-thuc-chu-ky-tang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/vi-sao-bac-van-con-rat-xa-moi-ket-thuc-chu-ky-tang\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Silver Is Still Far From the End of Its Bull Cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Why Silver is Nowhere Near Finished\" width=\"1020\" height=\"574\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7wpKfiGUTgE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Silver has just crossed the <span class=\"s1\"><b>$100 per ounce<\/b><\/span> mark. Gold is approaching <span class=\"s1\"><b>$5,000<\/b><\/span>. And if you follow the reaction of traditional financial experts to this move, you would think we are witnessing <span class=\"s1\"><b>a speculative blowoff top<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><b>They are wrong. And here\u2019s why.<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">In his latest video, precious metals analyst <span class=\"s1\"><b>Alan Hibbard<\/b><\/span> points out a critical distinction that most investors overlook \u2014 and it explains why <span class=\"s1\"><b>$100 silver is not the end of this bull market, but only the beginning<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><b>A Tweet That Perfectly Captures Wall Street\u2019s Confusion<\/b><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\">A recent post from a CFA summed up the prevailing sentiment:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i>\u201cSilver is in the middle of a blowoff top. The people who didn\u2019t buy at $20 are now buying at $93 expecting silver to hit $500 by the end of 2026. Investor psychology is insane.\u201d<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p class=\"p1\">That conclusion makes sense from a traditional finance perspective. But it also <span class=\"s1\"><b>reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of how monetary metals operate<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Traditional investors evaluate everything through the lens of stocks: productivity, earnings growth, market capitalization. But <span class=\"s1\"><b>gold and silver do not follow those rules<\/b><\/span>. They operate under <span class=\"s1\"><b>a completely different logic \u2014 the logic of trust, not productivity<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><b>Businesses Grow at the Speed of Organization. Metals Reprice at the Speed of Trust.<\/b><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\">Alan illustrates this with a simple comparison: look at the charts of most large corporations \u2014 Microsoft, Oracle, Cisco, Johnson &amp; Johnson, Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway \u2014 and you\u2019ll see the same pattern:<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><b>Big gains early. Smaller gains over time.<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">That makes sense. When a company is small, tripling in size is possible. But once it becomes a multi-billion-dollar enterprise, 300% growth in a single year is nearly impossible. Businesses are constrained by <span class=\"s1\"><b>labor, capital, time, and coordination<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><b>Precious metals are the opposite.<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">In a bull cycle, <span class=\"s1\"><b>the largest moves often occur toward the end<\/b><\/span>. Look at the gold and silver bull market of the 1970s: returns accelerated as the cycle matured. And today, we\u2019re seeing <span class=\"s1\"><b>a similar pattern<\/b><\/span>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b>Gold up 64% in 2025<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b>Silver up 146% in 2025<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\"><b>The second half of 2025 stronger than the first<\/b><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p1\">That\u2019s <span class=\"s1\"><b>acceleration<\/b><\/span>, not exhaustion.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><b>Three Core Differences Between Businesses and Monetary Metals<\/b><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\">Alan breaks it down into three factors:<\/p>\n<h3><b>1. Valuation<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\">Businesses rise in value through productivity and fall through inefficiency.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Monetary metals rise when <span class=\"s1\"><b>trust erodes<\/b><\/span> and fall when <span class=\"s1\"><b>trust returns<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\ud83d\udc49 They measure <b>two entirely different forces<\/b>.<\/p>\n<h3><b>2. Constraints<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\">Businesses are <span class=\"s1\"><b>limited by the physical world<\/b><\/span>: labor, capital, logistics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Metals are <span class=\"s1\"><b>limited by human perception<\/b><\/span>: fear, belief, credibility.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">\ud83d\udc49 That\u2019s why metals can be <span class=\"s1\"><b>repriced far more violently<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<h3><b>3. Speed<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\">Businesses accumulate value at the <span class=\"s1\"><b>speed of human organization<\/b><\/span> \u2014 slow, structured, incremental.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Metals accumulate value at the <span class=\"s1\"><b>speed of collective perception<\/b><\/span> \u2014 the <span class=\"s1\"><b>speed of thought<\/b><\/span>. When trust collapses, repricing happens fast.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Alan puts it this way:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><i>\u201cIf I don\u2019t believe the U.S. dollar has value, and you offer me an ounce of silver or $100, I\u2019ll take the silver. If you offer me $200, I\u2019ll still take the silver. If you offer $300, I\u2019ll still take the silver \u2014 because <\/i><span class=\"s1\"><b><i>300 lies are not better than 200 lies.<\/i><\/b><\/span><i>\u201d<\/i><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><b>What Does History Say About $500 Silver?<\/b><\/h2>\n<p class=\"p1\">So is <span class=\"s1\"><b>$500 silver by the end of 2026<\/b><\/span> really absurd?<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Alan bases his calculation on <b>the only reliable data we have: the 1979 bull market<\/b>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\">On January 22, 1979, silver traded at <span class=\"s1\"><b>$6 per ounce<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p class=\"p1\">By year-end, it reached <span class=\"s1\"><b>$32.20 per ounce<\/b><\/span> \u2014 a <span class=\"s1\"><b>409% increase<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p1\">If 2026 were to repeat <span class=\"s1\"><b>that same percentage move<\/b><\/span> from yesterday\u2019s close of <span class=\"s1\"><b>$96.83<\/b><\/span>, silver would end the year at:<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">\ud83d\udc49 <b>$492 per ounce<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Not $500.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><b>$492 \u2014 a \u201cmore reasonable\u201d number.<\/b><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">History doesn\u2019t repeat exactly, but <span class=\"s1\"><b>it often rhymes<\/b><\/span>. And right now, we are hearing <span class=\"s1\"><b>echoes of the late 1970s<\/b><\/span> \u2014 not a speculative bubble peak, but <span class=\"s1\"><b>a collapse of trust accelerating in real time<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><b>Frequently Asked Questions<\/b><\/h2>\n<h3><b>Why did silver suddenly reach $100 per ounce?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\">Because silver is being <span class=\"s1\"><b>repriced at the speed of trust<\/b><\/span>, not productivity. Unlike stocks that rise with earnings growth, monetary metals like silver are repriced when <span class=\"s1\"><b>confidence in currencies and institutions weakens<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<h3><b>Is $100 silver a bubble or blowoff top?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\">No. Precious metals bull markets behave <span class=\"s1\"><b>opposite to equities<\/b><\/span>. Businesses deliver their biggest gains early in a cycle, while gold and silver tend to see <span class=\"s1\"><b>their most explosive moves late in the cycle<\/b><\/span>. The 1970s demonstrated this pattern \u2014 and today appears similar.<\/p>\n<h3><b>How high could silver go in 2026?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\">If 2026 repeats the <span class=\"s1\"><b>409% gain of 1979<\/b><\/span>, silver could reach <span class=\"s1\"><b>$492 per ounce<\/b><\/span> by year-end. This is <span class=\"s1\"><b>not speculation<\/b><\/span>, but a historical extrapolation.<\/p>\n<h3><b>What is the difference between investing in stocks and silver?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\">Stocks accumulate value at the <span class=\"s1\"><b>speed of human organization<\/b><\/span> (slow and constrained).<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">Silver accumulates value at the <span class=\"s1\"><b>speed of collective perception<\/b><\/span>, and can reprice rapidly when trust collapses.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\">\ud83d\udc49 Stocks are valued by productivity; precious metals are valued by <span class=\"s1\"><b>the erosion of trust<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n<h3><b>Is it too late to buy silver at $100?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p class=\"p1\">According to historical models, <span class=\"s1\"><b>no<\/b><\/span>. In the 1970s bull market, silver\u2019s strongest gains occurred <span class=\"s1\"><b>after it had already risen significantly<\/b><\/span>. The final year of that cycle saw a <span class=\"s1\"><b>409% increase<\/b><\/span>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Silver has just crossed the $100 per ounce mark. Gold is approaching $5,000. And if you follow the reaction of traditional financial experts to this move, you would think we are witnessing a speculative blowoff top. They are wrong. And here\u2019s why. In his latest video, precious metals analyst Alan Hibbard points out a critical&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-events"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1655"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1673,"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1655\/revisions\/1673"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1655"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1655"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/indochinametal.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1655"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}